Why oil prices aren’t what you think – and what it means for global supply

What Happened

Oil prices have surged following US-Israel strikes on Iran and Trump's announced naval blockade, with Brent crude exceeding $103 per barrel. Physical oil spot prices and futures contracts have diverged significantly since Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of global supplies. Spot prices reached $144 per barrel, about $35 above futures. Only 17 vessels transited the strait recently, down from 130 daily. Global oil supply faces an estimated 8 million barrel daily shortfall.

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