India's agriculture confronts two major challenges: the Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall at 92% of the 50-year average, while fertilizer stocks stand at 18 million tonnes against a 39-million-tonne requirement for the Kharif season. West Asian conflict disrupts urea and raw material imports. El Niño threatens drier conditions in August-September. Food inflation rose to 3.9% in March. Pulse and oilseed prices may spike, threatening farmer incomes and rural demand stability.