Kalshi now controls 89% of the U.S. prediction market as regulated trading takes over

What Happened

Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, now controls 89% of measured U.S. prediction market volume, according to Bank of America. The platform's growth reflects a market shift toward regulated platforms. Polymarket holds 7% and Crypto.com holds 4%. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, treating contracts as financial derivatives. Polymarket operates on blockchain outside U.S. regulatory boundaries. The CFTC is suing states, arguing federal law preempts state gambling rules. Regulatory clarity may determine industry structure.

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